THE VALIDTY OF EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BASED ON NETWORK AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Reyhan CAFRI
Çankırı Karatekin University

Abstract In this study, the mutual export situation of developed and developing countries (hence import status) is taken into account by network analysis, and central and peripheral countries are determined and the export index is created. The existence of the relationship between the export index and growth, obtained from the network analysis of trade relations of the regions by trade matrix, is examined by Canning and Pedroni causality analysis.In this context, the study aims to test the validity of export-led growth hypothesis between 1995 and 2016 for developed and developing countries through network and causality analysis. As a result of the causal analysis between the export index obtained by network analysis and growth, it was found that the export-led growth hypothesis is valid in developing countries in East Africa, North Africa, West Africa, East Asia, South Asia regions and in developed countries in the European Region.

Keywords: Exports, Growth, Network Analysis, Canning and Pedroni Causality JEL Codes: F14, O47, D85, C33

For full text: https://www.intraders.org/may/archive/

International Conference on International Trade Conference Book/ editörler Kürşat Çapraz Irina Raluca Badea, Mustafa Yılmaz

İstanbul: Hiperlink Yayınları, 2018.