Erdem BULUT
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic, which deeply affected world trade, had a negative impact on Turkey’s
foreign trade, as well. However, whether the adverse effect of the Covid-19 on imports is lasting or not
is an important subject worth studying. Employing quarterly data for the period 2013: q1-2022q1, this
paper aims to analyze the long-term effects of the Covid-19 on Turkey’s imports via the ARDL bound
test approach. No long-term significant relationship was found between Covid-19 and imports in the
paper in which the dummy variable, cumulative number of cases and deaths, number of new cases and
deaths, number of stay at home requirements, and the average number of days off work were applied.
The results show that, although imports showed a significant breakdown due to the measures taken at
the beginning of Covid-19, the long-term effect became insignificant with the relaxation of the
measures in the later stages of the pandemic, the end of the panic atmosphere, the reversal of
pessimistic expectations and the shift to remote work. In addition, it is concluded that the demand
postponed at the beginning of the pandemic, combined with high inflation in the following periods,
turned to panic purchases, breaking the connection between Covid-19 and imports.
Keywords: Covid-19, import, ARDL bound test